A few months ago, we met a business owner named David. He runs a home services company doing about $4 million a year and had become convinced that a new market vertical was the company’s next big growth opportunity. He had spent months thinking through the idea, built the pitch deck, drafted job descriptions, and already had a picture in his mind of what success would look like.
Then we asked a simple question:
“What happens if this takes a year longer than expected to gain traction?”
David paused.
“I guess we’d figure it out.”
That pause highlighted a common challenge we see in growing businesses. David had a vision to be sure, but he didn’t have a clear roadmap to get there.
Analysis Isn’t Evidence
The opportunity itself wasn’t the issue. In fact, it may have been exactly the right move for the company. The problem was that David was preparing to make a significant investment before he had any proof that the market would respond the way he expected.
Many business leaders fall into this trap. They identify an opportunity, think it through carefully, and build a basic plan. Because the plan feels solid, the size of the commitment starts to feel justified.
But analysis and evidence are not the same thing.
Analysis is what we think will happen. Evidence is what actually happens. The gap between the two is where expensive mistakes tend to live.
Most successful leaders are naturally wired to take action. That instinct helps them grow companies, solve problems, and move quickly when opportunities appear. However, when a decision involves significant money, new overhead, or entering unfamiliar territory, that same instinct can become a liability.
Too often, companies launch new services before testing demand, hire employees before validating the workload, or enter new markets before confirming customers are ready to buy. They aren’t being reckless; they simply haven’t built experimentation into the way they operate.
The Experiment
Rather than telling David not to pursue the opportunity, we encouraged him to test it first.
Instead of hiring two new people and building a new division, we designed a simple 60-day pilot. We identified an existing client relationship that sat close to the target market and assigned one current employee to explore the opportunity as part of their existing responsibilities.
We also created a one-page playbook that defined what would be offered, how success would be measured, and what outcomes would tell us it was time to stop. That last piece is critical because many initiatives continue long after the evidence says they shouldn’t.
By the end of the pilot, David had something far more valuable than a forecast. He had real-world feedback. The experiment produced a paying engagement, several qualified conversations, and a much clearer understanding of the sales cycle.
He still entered the new market, but he did so with better information, a subtle shift in his approach, a stronger message, and actual customers already in hand. His first hire was supported by revenue instead of projections.
Three Moves to Push Past Ten
When you’re facing a big decision, resist the urge to make a bigger commitment than necessary.
- First, identify the smallest version of the idea that will teach you something meaningful. A new service can be tested with a single client, a new role can start as a contractor, and a new market can often be validated with a focused outreach effort.
- Second, write the playbook before you start. A simple document outlining the goal, ownership, success metrics, timeline, and stopping points forces clarity before resources are committed. If the experiment succeeds, you’ve already started building the system needed to scale it.
- Finally, look for patterns inside your own business. Your best opportunities are often hidden in what is already working. The customers who buy fastest, the sales conversations that close most often, and the operational improvements that create outsized results all leave clues worth studying.
Small Bets Create Better Growth
Many leaders equate confidence with commitment, but we’ve found the opposite is often true. The strongest leaders are not the ones making the biggest bets. They’re the ones who learn quickly, test ideas deliberately, and scale only after they’ve gathered evidence.
Growth rarely comes from a single giant leap. More often, it comes from a series of smart experiments that reduce risk, build confidence, and reveal the next move before you make it.
That’s what pushing past ten looks like. For more tips like this, check out our book Up To Eleven.